Sometimes things happen that are out of our control. Oh, yeah, that’s an understatement isn’t it?
When it really gets to be interesting is when those events lead to false conclusions. Adding to the false conclusions is when judgements are then made based on those false conclusions where were based on faulty analysis of the data.
Tully’s coffee at the Fry’s grocery store at Lambert and La Canada is a great place to start your day. This story is not meant to reflect poorly on this establishment or the employees in anyway. The events described were out of their control and I must say them certainly made the best of the situation. I would recommend stopping in for a cup of coffee and a snack anytime. And if you need a place for a WIFI connection to check in it is provided FREE at Tully’s.
What does this have to do with Oro Valley Real Estate Home Sales?
Last week I stopped in to get a large cup of coffee to go. Tully’s was out of lids for the cups. I thought this a little strange and someone must have forgotten to order lids. Nope there weren’t any lids anywhere, even the warehouse in another state where all the stores get their lids was out of lids. So I couldn’t get a cup of coffee and risk spilling it all over the place.
Monday morning I was back for breakfast of a banana, cinnamon & raisin bagel and a cup of coffee as I walked in the door they were opening the box of lids that had just arrived. When I went to order my large coffee they were out of large cups.
Apparently without lids there had been a run on large cups and not filling them all the way up most could get by without a lid. But now there were no large cups. I took the regular size cup instead.
With this information you can see why the following would be true.
- to go sales were down
- sales of large coffees were down
Without looking at this information there could be some hand ringing over the decline in sales over the past week. There could be managers saying “What can we do to increase our sales of large drinks and to go orders?”
This is what can happen when the end result is looked at without checking underlying data for conclusions and simply putting together a plan of action based on the result and not the data.
Oro Valley Home Sales September 2007
September home sales in Oro Valley and the rest of Tucson were down in September. For that matter they were down all over the country. Was it because of the sluggish housing market we keep hearing about in all the media.
No, it was because of the crisis in The Credit and Mortgage industries. It didn’t matter how many qualified buyers or pending sales were in the market, the mortgage industry was in crisis and it became much harder for anyone to close a loan and real estate transaction in September.
Are there no buyers? There are buyers, more buyers everyday, but unless they are cash buyers they have to get a loan. Getting a loan is a longer process, but not an impossible process. Please remember, most people applying for loans are qualified. They are putting 20% or more down. They are getting 30 year fixed interest loans. But the process is taking longer at the moment as the Mortgage industry sorts out the crisis. This is a much overdue sorting and it should have happened sooner. It shouldn’t never have happened in the first place in my opinion.
So it is not a time to jump to conclusions about the real estate market based on fewer sales in September. Even though there were fewer sales the average sale price in Sept. 2007 was more than $25,000 higher than the average sale price in Sept. 2006. Fewer homes sold, but for a higher sales price.